![]() Of the alternative future scenarios we examined, only a few produced large spikes in armed conflict.īut the defense policy implications of these findings are not straightforward, since conflict trends do not follow straight lines and the U.S. Many factors have contributed to the long-term decline in conflict and most of those factors remain in place. Similarly, intrastate conflict (that is, civil wars and related political violence) had declined steadily for two decades before an uptick in conflict sparked by the wars in Syria and Ukraine in 2014. Interstate war (that is, war between states) has become a rare event. The report examines the relationship between political violence and economic crime in humanitarian contexts, the challenges for humanitarians in analysing and addressing the crime threat, and ideas for new approaches from inside and outside the humanitarian sector.From a decades-long perspective, the incidence of armed conflict has decreased. We also interviewed external experts on criminology along with humanitarian security professionals and programme managers from high-risk operational contexts. The research includes quantitative data on perpetrators and motives recorded in the Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), augmented by global crime statistics and individual aid organisations’ incident records. How aid workers and their organisations understand and mitigate these two types of risk is the subject of this edition of the Aid Worker Security Report. In many insecure operational settings today, economic criminality (as opposed to attacks by conflict actors) accounts for a third or more of serious incidents against aid workers and can involve extreme violence. ![]() But aid workers also face significant risks from violent ‘common’ criminals who attack for purely economic or opportunistic reasons. Most of the aid worker casualties (fatalities, serious injuries and abductions) result from attacks by non-state armed actors engaged in asymmetric conflict and advancing some sort of political, strategic or ideological objectives. Historically, the most dangerous operational settings for aid workers have been places where armed conflict is occurring. ![]()
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